Premier League Run-In 2026/27
Premier League — Updated 12 Nov 2026
Arsenal are the favourites for the Premier League title, finishing top in 59% of 2,000 simulations.
Who is still in each Premier League race, the gap to the places that decide it, and every fixture they have left, rated from 1 (easiest) to 5 (hardest) by our model; fixtures against a rival in the same race are outlined. Chances come from 2,000 simulations of the 280 remaining fixtures (the predicted table), from points won on the pitch, so a points deduction isn't included.
12345 1 = easiest, 5 = hardest
Title race
| # | Team | Pts | +/− | Left | Finish 1st |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 27 | +5 | 28 | 59% | |
| NEW AMCI HBRE ATOT ABOU HMUN HCRY AFUL AIPS HBRE HHUL ANEW HMCI ALIV HIPS AFUL HMUN ACRY HCHE ASUN HCOV AAST HBOU ATOT HLEE ANOT HEVE ABRI H | |||||
| 2 | 22 | −5 | 28 | 34% | |
| HUL ANEW HBOU ANOT AEVE HIPS HFUL ATOT AMUN HBOU HBRE AMCI HNEW AHUL HMUN ATOT HIPS AFUL HLEE ACOV HAST ACHE HEVE ANOT HSUN HCRY ALIV HARS A | |||||
| 3 | 21 | −6 | 28 | 6% | |
| FUL HARS ALEE HBRE ACHE HHUL HNEW AEVE ATOT HLEE ANOT HBRI AARS HFUL ATOT ANEW HHUL AEVE HCOV AMUN HBOU ACRY HCHE ABRE HLIV HIPS AAST HSUN A | |||||
| 4 | 18 | −9 | 28 | 1% | |
| MUN HEVE ASUN HCHE ALEE HTOT HHUL AAST ACOV HSUN ACRY HMUN AEVE HARS ACOV AHUL HTOT AAST HIPS HFUL ANEW HNOT ALEE ACHE HMCI ABRE HBRI ABOU H | |||||
+/− = points above or below the line between 1st and 2nd.
7 meetings between the contenders
- 29 Nov: Arsenal v Manchester City
- 23 Jan: Brighton v Manchester City
- 30 Jan: Manchester City v Arsenal
- 6 Feb: Arsenal v Liverpool
- 8 May: Manchester City v Liverpool
- 23 May: Brighton v Liverpool
- 30 May: Arsenal v Brighton
Relegation battle
| # | Team | Pts | +/− | Left | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 12 | +4 | 28 | 15% | |
| IPS HSUN AFUL HARS HHUL ALIV ABOU HBRI HMCI AFUL ALEE HCRY ASUN HIPS AMCI HBRI ALIV HBOU ANOT HEVE ABRE HNEW AHUL HARS ACHE HCOV AMUN HAST A | |||||
| 12 | 12 | +4 | 28 | 23% | |
| ARS HBRI AMUN HSUN HIPS ABRE AMCI HNOT HCHE AMUN AFUL HARS ABRI HEVE ACHE HMCI ABRE HNOT ABOU ALEE HLIV ATOT HIPS HSUN ACOV HAST ACRY HHUL A | |||||
| 15 | 10 | +2 | 28 | 25% | |
| MCI ABOU HTOT AEVE ABRE HLEE ABRI HARS HNOT ATOT HNEW AAST HBOU AMCI HNOT HARS ALEE HBRI ACRY ALIV HCHE ASUN HBRE AEVE HIPS HHUL ACOV HMUN A | |||||
| 16 | 9 | +1 | 28 | 17% | |
| BOU ACHE HHUL ABRI HSUN AEVE HMUN ANEW AFUL HHUL HMCI ABOU HCHE ABRE HFUL AMUN HEVE ANEW HTOT AAST HLEE ALIV HSUN HBRI ACRY HARS AIPS HCOV A | |||||
| 17 | 9 | +1 | 28 | 17% | |
| CRY HLEE AIPS HMUN AAST HBOU ACHE HBRE HLIV AIPS AEVE HSUN ALEE HCRY ALIV HBRE ABOU HCHE AMCI HBRI AARS HHUL AAST AMUN HNEW ATOT HFUL ANOT H | |||||
| 18 | 8 | −1 | 28 | 24% | |
| LIV ABRE HNEW ACOV HCRY AARS ANOT HSUN HBRI ANEW HAST ALIV HBRE ACHE HBRI HNOT AARS HSUN AEVE HMCI AHUL HIPS ACRY HCOV ABOU ALEE HTOT AFUL H | |||||
| 19 | 8 | −1 | 28 | 51% | |
| AST ATOT HLIV ANEW ANOT HCRY HEVE AMUN AHUL HLIV HCHE ACOV HTOT AAST HHUL AEVE HCRY AMUN HBRE HARS AIPS HFUL ANOT ANEW HBRI ABOU HLEE AMCI H | |||||
| 20 | 7 | −2 | 28 | 91% | |
| COV AHUL HCHE AAST AMUN HSUN AARS HBOU HBRE ACHE HLIV ATOT HHUL ACOV HBRE HBOU ASUN HARS AFUL HIPS AEVE HMCI AMUN AAST HNOT ABRI HNEW ALEE H | |||||
+/− = points above or below the line between 17th and 18th. The percentage is the chance of finishing in those places.
41 meetings between the contenders
- 21 Nov: Coventry v Crystal Palace
- 29 Nov: Sunderland v Tottenham
- 2 Dec: Newcastle v Manchester United
- 3 Dec: Tottenham v Fulham
- 5 Dec: Manchester United v Coventry
- 6 Dec: Newcastle v Sunderland
- 13 Dec: Sunderland v Nottingham
- 13 Dec: Crystal Palace v Manchester United
- 20 Dec: Sunderland v Crystal Palace
- 27 Dec: Manchester United v Nottingham
- 30 Dec: Newcastle v Nottingham
- 30 Dec: Manchester United v Sunderland
- 2 Jan: Nottingham v Fulham
- 6 Jan: Fulham v Tottenham
- 7 Jan: Manchester United v Newcastle
- 16 Jan: Newcastle v Fulham
- 23 Jan: Crystal Palace v Tottenham
- 23 Jan: Sunderland v Coventry
- 30 Jan: Tottenham v Sunderland
- 6 Feb: Crystal Palace v Coventry
- 10 Feb: Fulham v Nottingham
- 20 Feb: Nottingham v Manchester United
- 27 Feb: Crystal Palace v Sunderland
- 3 Mar: Nottingham v Newcastle
- 3 Mar: Sunderland v Manchester United
- 13 Mar: Tottenham v Nottingham
- 13 Mar: Crystal Palace v Fulham
- 17 Apr: Newcastle v Tottenham
- 17 Apr: Fulham v Sunderland
- 24 Apr: Nottingham v Sunderland
- 24 Apr: Manchester United v Crystal Palace
- 1 May: Sunderland v Newcastle
- 1 May: Coventry v Manchester United
- 8 May: Newcastle v Coventry
- 8 May: Nottingham v Crystal Palace
- 15 May: Coventry v Tottenham
- 23 May: Tottenham v Manchester United
- 23 May: Newcastle v Crystal Palace
- 23 May: Fulham v Coventry
- 30 May: Manchester United v Fulham
- 30 May: Coventry v Nottingham
