Championship Run-In 2026/27
Championship — Updated 12 Nov 2026
Southampton are the favourites for the Championship title, finishing top in 37% of 2,000 simulations.
Who is still in each Championship race, the gap to the places that decide it, and every fixture they have left, rated from 1 (easiest) to 5 (hardest) by our model; fixtures against a rival in the same race are outlined. Chances come from 2,000 simulations of the 372 remaining fixtures (the predicted table), from points won on the pitch, so a points deduction isn't included.
12345 1 = easiest, 5 = hardest
Title race
| # | Team | Pts | +/− | Left | Finish 1st |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 29 | 0 | 31 | 27% | |
| STO ABUR ABOL HCHA AWAT HPOR AWHA HBLA ACAR HPOR HQPR ALIN HMIL ASWA ASTO HDER HPRE AMID AWBR HBRI ASHE HBOL ACHA HBLA HWHA ANOR HWOL AWRE HSOU AWAT ABUR H | |||||
| 2 | 29 | 0 | 31 | 20% | |
| BRI HSWA HSOU ADER HWHA APRE APOR HSHE ABOL HPRE HCAR ACHA AWRE HWAT HBRI ANOR ASTO HBIR HWOL ABLA HLIN ASOU HDER ASHE HPOR AMIL AQPR HWBR ABUR HWHA HSWA A | |||||
| 3 | 29 | 0 | 31 | 2% | |
| BIR HMIL HWHA AQPR HLIN AWBR HBUR AWRE HBRI AWBR ADER HPRE ABLA HPOR HBIR AWAT HMID ASHE ABOL HSOU HSWA AWHA HQPR AWRE ABUR HCAR HCHA AWOL HNOR ALIN HMIL A | |||||
| 4 | 28 | −1 | 31 | 37% | |
| DER HSHE AMID HWOL ABUR HCAR ABLA HCHA AWHA HCAR HBOL AQPR AWBR HPRE HDER ABRI ANOR HWRE HPOR ASTO AWAT HMID AWOL HCHA HBLA ASWA ALIN HMIL ABIR HBUR ASHE H | |||||
| 6 | 28 | −1 | 31 | 5% | |
| SWA ABOL ABRI HPOR ACAR HSTO ASHE HLIN APRE HSTO HBLA AWHA HSOU AMIL ASWA HQPR AWRE HWOL HBIR ABUR ANOR HBRI APOR HLIN HSHE ADER HWAT AMID HCHA ACAR ABOL H | |||||
| 7 | 26 | −3 | 31 | 2% | |
| WBR HMID ACAR HBRI ABOL HCHA APRE HWOL AQPR HCHA HWHA ABLA APOR HBIR HWBR ABUR AMIL HLIN HNOR ASHE ASTO HCAR ABRI HWOL HPRE ASOU HWRE ADER HWAT ABOL AMID H | |||||
| 9 | 23 | −6 | 31 | 3% | |
| PRE HPOR ASTO HSHE AMID HBRI HBIR ANOR HSOU ABRI ASWA HWBR ACAR HBLA HPRE AWRE ALIN HMIL HQPR ACHA ABUR HSTO ASHE HNOR ABIR HBOL HDER AWAT HWOL AMID APOR H | |||||
| 12 | 21 | −8 | 31 | 3% | |
| CAR HQPR HPRE AWRE HBLA ALIN AWOL HWHA ACHA HLIN HPOR AWAT ADER HBRI HCAR AMID HSOU ABOL ASWA HMIL HWBR APRE HWRE AWHA HWOL ABIR ASHE HBUR ASTO HBLA HQPR A | |||||
+/− = points above or below the line between 1st and 2nd.
37 meetings between the contenders
- 21 Nov: Stoke v Birmingham
- 21 Nov: Swansea v West Bromwich
- 24 Nov: Middlesbrough v Swansea
- 27 Nov: Southampton v Middlesbrough
- 28 Nov: West Ham v Stoke
- 8 Dec: West Ham v Middlesbrough
- 12 Dec: Stoke v West Bromwich
- 19 Dec: Birmingham v West Ham
- 26 Dec: West Ham v Norwich
- 29 Dec: Southampton v West Ham
- 1 Jan: West Bromwich v Stoke
- 15 Jan: West Ham v Swansea
- 23 Jan: West Bromwich v West Ham
- 26 Jan: Southampton v West Bromwich
- 30 Jan: Swansea v Birmingham
- 6 Feb: Birmingham v Stoke
- 6 Feb: West Bromwich v Swansea
- 13 Feb: Norwich v Middlesbrough
- 16 Feb: Middlesbrough v Stoke
- 17 Feb: Southampton v Norwich
- 19 Feb: Middlesbrough v Birmingham
- 26 Feb: Birmingham v West Bromwich
- 27 Feb: Norwich v Swansea
- 3 Mar: Stoke v Southampton
- 6 Mar: Swansea v Stoke
- 6 Mar: West Bromwich v Norwich
- 13 Mar: Middlesbrough v Southampton
- 13 Mar: Stoke v West Ham
- 20 Mar: Norwich v West Ham
- 3 Apr: West Ham v Birmingham
- 6 Apr: Swansea v Southampton
- 7 Apr: Birmingham v Norwich
- 17 Apr: West Bromwich v Middlesbrough
- 20 Apr: Southampton v Birmingham
- 20 Apr: Norwich v Stoke
- 24 Apr: Middlesbrough v West Ham
- 1 May: Swansea v Middlesbrough
Promotion race
| # | Team | Pts | +/− | Left | Top 2 | 3rd–8th |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 29 | +6 | 31 | 51% | 46% | |
| STO ABUR ABOL HCHA AWAT HPOR AWHA HBLA ACAR HPOR HQPR ALIN HMIL ASWA ASTO HDER HPRE AMID AWBR HBRI ASHE HBOL ACHA HBLA HWHA ANOR HWOL AWRE HSOU AWAT ABUR H | ||||||
| 2 | 29 | +6 | 31 | 40% | 55% | |
| BRI HSWA HSOU ADER HWHA APRE APOR HSHE ABOL HPRE HCAR ACHA AWRE HWAT HBRI ANOR ASTO HBIR HWOL ABLA HLIN ASOU HDER ASHE HPOR AMIL AQPR HWBR ABUR HWHA HSWA A | ||||||
| 3 | 29 | +6 | 31 | 7% | 60% | |
| BIR HMIL HWHA AQPR HLIN AWBR HBUR AWRE HBRI AWBR ADER HPRE ABLA HPOR HBIR AWAT HMID ASHE ABOL HSOU HSWA AWHA HQPR AWRE ABUR HCAR HCHA AWOL HNOR ALIN HMIL A | ||||||
| 4 | 28 | +5 | 31 | 59% | 40% | |
| DER HSHE AMID HWOL ABUR HCAR ABLA HCHA AWHA HCAR HBOL AQPR AWBR HPRE HDER ABRI ANOR HWRE HPOR ASTO AWAT HMID AWOL HCHA HBLA ASWA ALIN HMIL ABIR HBUR ASHE H | ||||||
| 5 | 28 | +5 | 31 | 6% | 55% | |
| CHA HDER HLIN ASOU HQPR AMIL HNOR ASWA HWAT AMIL ABUR HCAR ABRI HWRE HCHA ASHE HBOL AWBR AMID HPRE HBLA ALIN HSOU ASWA ANOR HPOR ABIR HSTO AWHA HQPR HDER A | ||||||
| 6 | 28 | +5 | 31 | 14% | 65% | |
| SWA ABOL ABRI HPOR ACAR HSTO ASHE HLIN APRE HSTO HBLA AWHA HSOU AMIL ASWA HQPR AWRE HWOL HBIR ABUR ANOR HBRI APOR HLIN HSHE ADER HWAT AMID HCHA ACAR ABOL H | ||||||
| 9 | 23 | −1 | 31 | 8% | 58% | |
| PRE HPOR ASTO HSHE AMID HBRI HBIR ANOR HSOU ABRI ASWA HWBR ACAR HBLA HPRE AWRE ALIN HMIL HQPR ACHA ABUR HSTO ASHE HNOR ABIR HBOL HDER AWAT HWOL AMID APOR H | ||||||
| 12 | 21 | −3 | 31 | 8% | 59% | |
| CAR HQPR HPRE AWRE HBLA ALIN AWOL HWHA ACHA HLIN HPOR AWAT ADER HBRI HCAR AMID HSOU ABOL ASWA HMIL HWBR APRE HWRE AWHA HWOL ABIR ASHE HBUR ASTO HBLA HQPR A | ||||||
+/− = points above or below the line between 8th and 9th. A play-off place is not promotion: the play-offs decide it.
37 meetings between the contenders
- 21 Nov: Stoke v Birmingham
- 27 Nov: Southampton v Middlesbrough
- 28 Nov: West Ham v Stoke
- 5 Dec: Wolverhampton v Southampton
- 8 Dec: West Ham v Middlesbrough
- 12 Dec: Stoke v West Bromwich
- 19 Dec: Birmingham v West Ham
- 19 Dec: Norwich v Wolverhampton
- 26 Dec: West Ham v Norwich
- 29 Dec: Southampton v West Ham
- 1 Jan: West Bromwich v Stoke
- 23 Jan: West Bromwich v West Ham
- 26 Jan: Southampton v West Bromwich
- 6 Feb: Birmingham v Stoke
- 13 Feb: Norwich v Middlesbrough
- 16 Feb: Middlesbrough v Stoke
- 17 Feb: Southampton v Norwich
- 19 Feb: Middlesbrough v Birmingham
- 20 Feb: West Bromwich v Wolverhampton
- 26 Feb: Birmingham v West Bromwich
- 27 Feb: Wolverhampton v Middlesbrough
- 3 Mar: Stoke v Southampton
- 6 Mar: West Bromwich v Norwich
- 13 Mar: Middlesbrough v Southampton
- 13 Mar: Stoke v West Ham
- 16 Mar: Southampton v Wolverhampton
- 20 Mar: Norwich v West Ham
- 3 Apr: West Ham v Birmingham
- 3 Apr: Wolverhampton v Norwich
- 7 Apr: Birmingham v Norwich
- 10 Apr: Wolverhampton v Birmingham
- 17 Apr: West Bromwich v Middlesbrough
- 17 Apr: Stoke v Wolverhampton
- 20 Apr: Southampton v Birmingham
- 20 Apr: Norwich v Stoke
- 20 Apr: Wolverhampton v West Ham
- 24 Apr: Middlesbrough v West Ham
Relegation battle
| # | Team | Pts | +/− | Left | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 18 | +8 | 31 | 15% | |
| MID AWRE HWBR ASWA HDER AWHA ACAR HQPR ASTO HWHA HSHE ABOL HWOL ANOR AMID HSOU HBLA AWAT ACHA HBIR HMIL AWBR HSWA AQPR HCAR ALIN ABUR HPOR APRE HDER HWRE A | |||||
| 18 | 17 | +7 | 31 | 7% | |
| POR HWBR HBIR ABLA HSWA AWRE HWAT ABUR HMID AWRE ASOU HBRI ACHA HDER HPOR ACAR AWOL HNOR HSTO AQPR HPRE ABIR HBLA ABUR AWAT HWHA AMIL HLIN ASHE HSWA HWBR A | |||||
| 19 | 17 | +7 | 31 | 32% | |
| WOL ALIN HBLA ABIR HWRE ASWA HMIL ASOU HNOR ASWA AWAT HMID HBOL ASHE AWOL HPOR ABUR HCAR HBRI AWHA HDER ABLA HBIR ASOU AMIL HQPR ASTO HPRE AWBR HWRE HLIN A | |||||
| 20 | 15 | +5 | 31 | 37% | |
| SHE ABLA HDER AMIL HBIR AQPR ABOL HPOR AWOL HQPR HCHA ANOR HLIN AMID ASHE HSTO ACAR HBRI HBUR AWRE HSOU ADER HMIL APOR HBOL APRE AWBR HWHA ASWA HBIR HBLA A | |||||
| 21 | 15 | +5 | 31 | 7% | |
| WRE HCHA AWOL HCAR ASTO HNOR HDER AWBR HBUR ANOR AMIL HBIR AWAT HQPR HWRE APRE HWHA ASWA ASHE HPOR AMID HWOL ACAR HWBR ADER HBRI HSOU ABOL HBLA ASTO ACHA H | |||||
| 22 | 10 | −5 | 31 | 52% | |
| BLA HBIR HMIL APRE HSOU ASHE ASTO HBOL ALIN HSHE HWOL APOR AQPR HCAR HBLA ASWA HCHA ADER AWAT HWBR HWHA AMIL HPRE ABOL HSTO AWRE HBRI ANOR HMID ASOU HBIR A | |||||
| 23 | 10 | −5 | 31 | 59% | |
| SOU AWOL AWAT HMID ABRI HBLA ALIN HPRE ASHE HBLA HSTO AMIL HNOR ABOL ASOU HBIR AQPR HBUR HWRE ACAR ACHA HWAT AMID HPRE HLIN AWBR AWHA HSWA APOR HBRI AWOL H | |||||
| 24 | 8 | −7 | 31 | 88% | |
| WHA ACAR ANOR HBUR APOR HMID HSWA ADER HWBR AMID AWRE HSTO HSHE ASOU AWHA HLIN ABIR HQPR HMIL AWOL ABOL HNOR ABUR HDER ASWA HWAT HBLA ACHA HBRI APOR ACAR H | |||||
+/− = points above or below the line between 21st and 22nd. The percentage is the chance of finishing in those places.
36 meetings between the contenders
- 24 Nov: Charlton v Lincoln
- 28 Nov: Derby v Watford
- 6 Dec: Burnley v Preston
- 9 Dec: Derby v Bristol City
- 19 Dec: Watford v Bolton
- 19 Dec: Derby v Lincoln
- 26 Dec: Bolton v Burnley
- 26 Dec: Preston v Derby
- 29 Dec: Burnley v Lincoln
- 17 Jan: Charlton v Watford
- 23 Jan: Bristol City v Bolton
- 26 Jan: Bolton v Charlton
- 26 Jan: Lincoln v Watford
- 30 Jan: Bolton v Derby
- 13 Feb: Lincoln v Preston
- 16 Feb: Charlton v Burnley
- 20 Feb: Watford v Bristol City
- 20 Feb: Derby v Burnley
- 27 Feb: Bristol City v Charlton
- 27 Feb: Burnley v Watford
- 6 Mar: Preston v Bolton
- 6 Mar: Derby v Charlton
- 13 Mar: Watford v Derby
- 16 Mar: Preston v Burnley
- 20 Mar: Burnley v Bolton
- 20 Mar: Derby v Preston
- 3 Apr: Bolton v Watford
- 3 Apr: Lincoln v Derby
- 6 Apr: Lincoln v Bristol City
- 7 Apr: Preston v Watford
- 10 Apr: Bristol City v Burnley
- 17 Apr: Lincoln v Bolton
- 17 Apr: Preston v Charlton
- 21 Apr: Bristol City v Preston
- 24 Apr: Bristol City v Derby
- 1 May: Lincoln v Charlton